Cia Hering - HGTX3

Não li o relatório todo, mas pelo que li foi pior até do que esperava e já achava que seria ruim. Caiu tudo; receita, vendas, SSS, etc. Nem preciso dizer que está cara e que não entendo o porquê.

O fato de o resultado recorrente do 3T15 ter vindo pior do que do 3T14 não significa que o resultado foi ruim. Pelo contrário, parece-me haver uma clara melhora na tendência, quando comparamos o acumulado do ano com o 3T:

3T14vs3T15 9M14vs9M15
Receita -2% -8%
Lucro Bruto -6% -16%
EBITDA -27% -37%
LAJIR -34% -44%
LAIR -27% -37%

Reparem que por ter dívida líquida negativa, a empresa tem LAIR melhor que LAJIR (o resultado financeiro é positivo), o que é fundamental em tempos de crise, pois significa que a empresa sobreviverá, enquanto vários concorrentes perecerão. Aliás, apesar da crise, a empresa continua lucrativa e com margem bruta altíssima (42%) e margem EBITDA bem razoável (16%), particularmente para uma empresa com dívida líquida negativa.
Como o mercado é míope, é possível que o preço reaja negativamente, por o P/L (considerando lucro recorrente) acima de 10 ser considerado alto. Mas, definitivamente é uma empresa que segue no meu radar, pois se consegue apresentar esse resultado no meio da crise, imaginem na prosperidade!

Aquí pode estar tendo um impacto pontual a situação em Uzbequistão. A queda pode ser generalizada a todas as empresas que trabalhem com algodão e podem abrir janelas de compras

U.S. lifted Uzbekistan's rights ranking as cotton field abuses continued

SAMARKAND, Uzbekistan/WASHINGTON(Reuters) - The news reached Dmitry Tihonov in Uzbekistan's rural heartland as the labor activist quietly recorded the arrival of thousands of teachers, nurses, laborers, students and other conscripts sent to the fields to pick cotton.

A fire had destroyed Tihonov’s home office. When he returned to search the debris on Oct. 29, his reports for international monitors documenting the annual mobilization had vanished.

Human rights groups say Tihonov is a victim of Uzbekistan’s efforts to conceal a massive, state-orchestrated forced labor system that underpins its position as the world’s fifth-largest cotton exporter. They cite regular arrests, intimidation and harassment of activists.

The activist from Angren, a town about 62 miles (100 km) east of the capital Tashkent, says he’s under constant surveillance by local authorities to remind people “it’s better to keep away from me” – an allegation that Reuters could not independently confirm.

Persecution of activists is among many abuses cited by witnesses and human rights groups that fueled discord in the Obama administration this year over how much criticism Central Asia's most populous nation deserved in the U.S. State Department’s annual report on modern slavery.

In a previously undisclosed memo, analysts in the State Department’s Office to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons called forced labor “endemic” during the cotton harvest and said Uzbekistan had "failed to make significant and sustained efforts" to improve its record. The early 2015 memo, reviewed by Reuters, recommended keeping Uzbekistan in the lowest tier of the report’s rankings, raising the specter of economic sanctions on a country whose cotton is used in yarn and fabric that play a significant role in the global supply chain.

But senior U.S. diplomats rejected the recommendation, downplaying concerns about human rights in a strategically important country.

The landlocked nation of deserts, mountains and steppes was a transit point for U.S. troops and supplies during the war in neighboring Afghanistan. Washington now wants its help preventing the spread of Islamic militants, stabilizing Afghanistan and offsetting Russian influence in the region.

When the State Department issued its 2015 Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report in July, Uzbekistan was elevated from the bottom tier of violators. Uzbekistan doesn’t meet “minimum standards” to end trafficking, the report said, but it is “making significant efforts” – a caveat absent from the analysts’ assessment.

Uzbekistan’s government makes an estimated $1 billion a year from cotton sales, and the harvest mobilizations of roughly a million people that date to Soviet times are characterized as a patriotic duty. Uzbek officials did not answer repeated requests for comment but generally argue that citizens pick cotton voluntarily.

A Reuters examination – based on interviews with local officials, activists and workers in the fields – found that while the country has made progress ending child labor in the harvest, it has intensified recruitment of adults and older teenagers using the same coercive approach.

The State Department’s decision to rebuff its experts’ recommendation and upgrade Uzbekistan's rating in the trafficking report reinforces a Reuters article in August that said senior diplomats inflated assessments of 14 strategically important countries in the annual review, including the central Asian country. The yearly review is meant to independently grade countries on trafficking and forced labor.

Despite Uzbekistan’s progress barring children from the fields, “I don’t see any evidence that this very fundamental form of coercive labor has changed,” says former U.S. ambassador-at-large Mark Lagon, who headed the State Department’s anti-trafficking office from 2007-2009. Uzbekistan still has a “miserable human rights profile.”

Asked for comment, a State Department official defended Uzbekistan’s upgrade, saying the department stands by “the integrity of the process” for determining country rankings

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Mais R$0,2486 de dividendos aprovados relativos ao exercício 2015. Acrescentando isso aos 0,5714 já pagos dá um DY de 6,3% para 2015 com a cotação atual.

SSS: -5,5%, sigo esperando melhora dessa métrica para embarcar.

De resto a empresa é excelente.

Same Store Sales

Algo assim

Grato por compartilhar.

Em geral a exame sempre chega atrasada.
Quanto sai reportagem da revista expondo as razões para o declínio ou estamos perto da virada ou da derrocada final.

No caso da Hering, uma empresa que tem uma marca forte, sem dívidas, acionistas comprometidos e em processo claro de correção de rumo, acredito que as más notícias da exame sejam mais um indicativo de fundo de poço.

Ainda assim, não chegou no preço que me disponho a pagar (VPA), então permanecerei de fora.

Não sei o que vem de tão bom aqui.

Se olhar o lucro parece bom. Mas houve queda de receita, de todas as margens, queda do SSS. Se não me engano o que salvou redução de tributos(não sei se será permanente) e uma ação judicial(que não me aprofundei no caso) e a melhora da receita financeira(que deve cair com redução futura do juros). Considero esse resultado ruim principalmente porque não sei qual é o fundo do poço. Diferente da Grendene que nesse trimestre teve melhora operacional, sinalizando que por enquanto o pior já passou.