MERCADO 2016

Infraestrutura ruim tira R$ 150 bilhões do Brasil

www.correiobraziliense.com.br/app/noticia/economia/2016/06/05/internas_economia,535002/infraestrutura-ruim-tira-r-150-bilhoes-do-brasil.shtml

Importante artigo escrito por Samuel Pessoa e Marcos Lisboa sobre a crise atual na economia brasileira.

Ao mesmo tempo em que diagnosticam com clareza as origens da crise fiscal, observam que a saída não será fácil, por falta de uma liderança política capaz de realizar as mudanças necessárias (muito menos em ano eleitoral - digo eu):


www1.folha.uol.com.br/ilustrissima/2016/06/1777909-as-meias-entradas-no-caminho-do-ajuste-economico.shtml


Enfim, um artigo para guardar nos bookmarks e rever daqui a alguns anos

Da série, isto aqui não sai no Valor Econômico, mas deveria...

ECB kicks off corporate bond buying (CSPP)
www.cnbc.com/2016/06/08/ecb-kicks-off-corporate-bond-buying.html

The ECB started yesterday (June 8th) its corporate sector purchase program (CSPP).

Simply put, it consists in buying, in both primary and secondary markets, investment grade debt (by at least 1 rating agency), denominated in euros, maturing within 6 months and 30 years, from non-credit companies and from issuers incorporated in the euro-area.

The ECB can buy up to 70% of the bond outstanding amount and it is not obliged to sell the bonds in case of a rating downgrade below investment grade status.

Purchases will be published on a weekly and monthly basis.

Mussolini estaria orgulhoso se vivesse. Compram-se debêntures de empresas com o dinheiro de todos, financiando estas empresas com o dinheiro de todos. Se a empresa quebrar, todos pagam. Mussolini fazia dessas coisas na Itália no seu nacional-socialismo, a situação aqui é um econômico-socialismo europeu.

Eu que não quero ficar exposto a dívidas de Governos, vai todas vão sofrer em um efeito dominó. Seguro 75% em fiis e 25% em crypto neste momento.

Dos livros dele, que já tem versão em português, você recomenda algum que seja num nível iniciante de AF?
Não faço ideia de quantos livros ele escreveu. Encontrei apenas esses dois abaixo com versão em português e um outro com versão só em inglês (Damondaran on Valuation) que eu achei muito caro (mais de R$500,00), mesmo para um livro importado. 

1.Gestão Estratégica do Risco
2.Valuation: Como Avaliar Empresas e Escolher as Melhores Ações

Tem uma nota interessante no NYtimes esses dias sobre como os dados de emprego norteamericano são difíceis de ler:

When the unemployment rate falls below 5 percent, it usually means things are going pretty well. It was 4.7 percent in May, a level last seen in November 2007.

A different measure of the economy’s health, however, is beeping and flashing red. It says that labor market conditions have deteriorated with each passing month this year. In May, it fell
to its lowest level in seven years.

Called the Labor Market Conditions Index, it has been billed as a more complete measurement than that old war horse, the unemployment rate. There are two possible explanations for the
index’s decline: one somewhat comforting, and the other scary.

Let’s do comfort first. It’s possible we’re not making progress because we’ve more or less arrived at our destination — what economists call full employment. This somewhat misleading term
doesn’t mean that everyone has a job. It means that the reservoir of people seeking work has receded to a historically normal level.

There is some evidence for this. Notably, the low unemployment rate.

But there are also some pretty strong reasons for skepticism. My personal favorite: In 2007, about 88 percent of men between the ages of 25 and 54 were working. Now, roughly 85 percent of
such men are working.
That’s a difference of about two million men, most of whom probably would like jobs.

The scary explanation? Job growth is slowing because the economy is losing steam.

Fed officials, and other economists, have been grappling with the divergence between relatively weak reported economic growth and relatively strong job growth. Those at the Fed have
largely taken the view that labor market data is more accurate, which has been true over time.

The Federal Reserve created an index to better measure the health of the economy. Has its decline signaled that the economy is turning sour? The shaded bars mark recessions. 


Source: Federal Reserve Board
But this time, some economists say, the broader economic data may be closer to the truth. “Of course, the bond market understands this perfectly clearly,” Michael Darda, chief economist at
MKM Partners, noted recently. Investors have continued to discount the Fed’s hints that it plans to raise rates this summer, and again later this year. They are betting the Fed will once
again be forced to wait longer than it wishes.
Some may be heading to the office; others may be busking for dollars. The jobless rate has fallen in the United States, but it may not be giving a complete picture of the labor market.

(It has not escaped the notice of these pessimists that the Fed’s labor market index started showing weakness after the Fed increased rates in December.)

The truth may be somewhere in between.
The Federal Reserve introduced the new measure of labor market health a few months after Janet Yellen became the Fed’s chairwoman in 2014. It created the index because the unemployment
rate is too simple. Even the name is too simple. It doesn’t actually measure unemployment; it counts only people who are actively looking for work. Moreover, a low unemployment rate
doesn’t tell you how many part-time workers would like full-time gigs. It doesn’t tell you how many full-time workers would like a better job at higher pay.

In short, particularly in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the unemployment rate has improved much more quickly than the actual labor market.

The Fed’s corrective, however, is also imperfect. The central bank mashed together 19 kinds of labor data, including high-profile stalwarts like the unemployment rate and less familiar
esoterica like the Conference Board’s “help-wanted advertising index.” And it tried to clean that data, scrubbing away the noise to reveal the underlying trends. But there is no perfect
method for telling the difference, and a recent Goldman Sachs analysis suggests the Fed scrubbed too hard.

Daan Struyven and Zach Pandl, economists at Goldman, concluded that the Fed is scrubbing away some of the economy’s actual progress. But they caution that is only a partial explanation:
Economic growth still appears to be slowing.
“This is not to say that the labor market is still firing on all cylinders,” they wrote. “The labor market is still making progress, but at a meaningfully slower pace.”

Para ilustrar:



E isso já tem uns bons anos...

Mercado nervoso!

Além de pesquisas em favor do "leave", a decisão do The Sun, jornal britânico mais vendido, de apoiar a saída do Reino Unido da União Europeia intensificou o pessimismo dos mercados, um dia antes da reunião do Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central norte-americano). Bolsas e commodities recuam com investidores migrando para títulos dos governos dos Estados Unidos e da Alemanha.

www.financista.com.br/noticias/ibovespa-despenca-2-sob-temor-com-brexit

O blog dele realmente tem bastante material, Potuz. Pelo que vi, desde 2008 ele escreve cerca de 40 a 50 posts/ano.
O canal dele no Youtube tem 385 vídeos ! Vou deixar o link do canal do Youtube dele lá no tópico de links, pois não encontrei.